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Steel Market Dynamics Update

Chinese Steel Price

Chinese Steel FOB Price (Unit: USD/ton)
Item Port December 22nd
Hot rolled steel(SS400) Tianjin Port 570
Cold rolled steel(SPCC) Tianjin Port 657
Hot-dip galvanization Tianjin Port 725
Rebar (B500B) Zhangjiagang 570
H-beam (SS4000) Qingdao Port 541

HRC Coil Price

International HRC Price (Unit: USD/ton)
Market December 25th
American Midwest Steel Factory price 1200
American Import (CFR) 950
EU steel factory price 760
European Union Imports (CFR) 725
Japan Export (FOB) 605
Turkey Exports (FOB) 705
China Export (FOB) 570
India Export (FOB) 640
Southeast Asia Import (CFR) 570

HRC Price Forecast

China

Last week, the price of China’s hot rolled steel coils with domestic trade showed a decline and then a stable trend, with the support of raw material prices, China’s large steel mills for export offshore offer unchanged from last week at 570~580 USD/ton FOB. Export volumes have been relatively subdued this week, with overseas inquiries also down as the Christmas holiday approaches. Some new transactions show that the mainstream transaction price for Vietnam SS400 and Q195 hot rolled steel coils is 575~580 USD/ton CFR. At present, the offer activities of China’s early low-cost hot rolled steel coils resources to Southeast Asia and the Middle East have decreased significantly, and the transaction price has gradually moved closer to a high level. A SAE1006 small volume order price of $605 per ton CFR Vietnam. The price is still competitive in the Asian market. Due to the relatively high shipping price, the price of shipping from the major ports in northern China to Vietnam reaches 18 to 20 US dollars, so the CIF price increase is relatively large.

Southeast Asia

Due to the strong price of the Chinese market in the past week, the overall Asian hot rolled steel coils price rose slightly. SS400 hot rolled steel coils on December 21 at a FOB price of $560/ton increased by $1/ton from that day. The price of the same grade of coil rose by $2 to $569/ton on the day. In terms of exports, we are currently in the Christmas holiday period, so most overseas buyers are on holiday, but some markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia are still active. On the same day, the price of Q235 rose to $572/ton CFR Vietnam, but no transaction was heard. The market generally believes that prices will still rise further, possibly by around $5- $10/ton in a month, but the details will mainly depend on domestic demand in China.

The price of the SAE1006 hot roll is 581 US dollars/ton FOB China, with little change from week to week. Same specification hot roll price at $587/ton CFR Southeast Asia. For SAE1006 materials, the tradable price will be lower by 10-15 USD/ton. Prices will rise further before the Spring Festival holiday

India

Indian hot rolled steel coils remained stable during the week, with the spot price of IS2062 2.5-10 mm thick HRC, excluding 18%VAT, stable at Rs 55,000/t EXW($660.49/t) for delivery from the Mumbai factory on December 21. The market is skeptical of a market recovery in the first quarter of 2024, as imports are currently expected to last only until the end of January. Some buyers will make purchases after January 15.

 

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